模拟结果为什么比实际更暖: 简化气候模型结果

doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2

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Abstract

An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expressed "substantial confidence" that near-term global warming would occur twice as fast as subsequent observation. Given rising CO₂ concentration, few models predicted no warming since 2001. Between the pre-final and published drafts of the Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC cut its near-term warming projection substantially, substituting "expert assessment" for models' near-term predictions. Yet its long-range predictions remain unaltered. The model indicates that IPCC's reduction of the feedback sum from 1.9 to 1.5 W m^-2 K^-1 mandates a reduction from 3.2 to 2.2 K in its central climate-sensitivity estimate; that, since feedbacks are likely to be net-negative, a better estimate is 1.0 K; that there is no unrealized global warming in the pipeline; that global warming this century will be < 1 K; and that combustion of all recoverable fossil fuels will cause < 2.2 K global warming to equilibrium. Resolving the discrepancies between the methodology adopted by IPCC in its Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports that are highlighted in the present paper is vital. Once those discrepancies are taken into account, the impact of anthropogenic global warming over the next century, and even as far as equilibrium many millennia hence, may be no more than one-third to one-half of IPCC's current projections.

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	Articles by authors
	Christopher Monckton
	Willie W.-H. Soon
	David R. Legates
	William M. Briggs

中文摘要

设计了一个非专业人士能够使用、最简化的气候敏感模型, 用来研究人类活动所导致的全球变暖的幅度问题. 在1990年的第一次IPCC评估报告中, IPCC对其报告中预测的未来全球变暖幅度很有信心, 但是随后的观测结果显示全球的变暖幅度只有预测的一半. 而自2001年起, 全球变暖出现停滞, 但是仅仅考虑到二氧化碳浓度的增加, 很少有模型能够模拟出这一变化. 在已出版的IPCC第五次评估报告的草稿中, IPCC大幅度削减了近期变暖的幅度, 并以专家评估代替了模型预测. 但是报告中关于未来气候长期变化的预测仍被保留. 如果把IPCC模型的总反馈从1.9 W m^-2 K^-1调整到1.5 W m^-2 K^-1, 气候敏感模型中模拟的温度将从3.2 K降至2.2 K. 同时由于反馈很可能是净负反馈, 更合适的估计应该是1.0 K. 1.0 K是一个能够实现的增幅, 21世纪的实际变暖将会小于1 K. 即使燃烧所有可开采的化石燃料也不会使全球变暖的幅度超过2.2 K, 这一增加幅度也将趋于平稳. 本文认为解决IPCC第四、五次报告中评估方法的差异非常关键. 一旦这些差异得到解决, 人类活动导致的全球变暖在22世纪以及几个世纪以后的平稳态将有可能不会超过IPCC当前模型预测的1/3~1/2.

Key words： Climate change Climate sensitivity Climate models Global warming Temperature feedbacks Dynamical systems

Received: 2014-08-27 Accepted: 2014-11-12

Corresponding Authors: Christopher Monckton E-mail: monckton@mail.com

Cite this article:

Christopher Monckton, Willie W.-H. Soon, David R. Legates, William M. Briggs. Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model. Science Bulletin, 2015, 60(1): 122-135.

URL:

http://www.scibull.com:8080/EN/10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2 OR http://www.scibull.com:8080/EN/Y2015/V60/I1/122

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